Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
